Resource · Included with membership
Expectancy: Combine Win Rate, Payoff, and Costs
Calculate an average net outcome while keeping sample uncertainty and changing conditions visible.
Public summary
Expectancy is an average outcome expressed in a consistent unit. A journal can estimate it by adding all net results and dividing by the number of recorded outcomes. The estimate describes that sample; it does not prove a durable edge or predict the next result. Keep gross results, costs and net results separate. State the account currency or other unit, include losses and flat outcomes, and avoid subtracting a cost twice. A high win rate can coexist with a negative average when losses outweigh wins. The member edition adds the complete guide, an editable calculation workbook and a printable audit companion. A fictional ten-trade record demonstrates 60% wins alongside a net loss of 60 currency units. Blank rows let you practise the same calculations while checking sample definitions, missing costs and uncertainty.
Image credit
Different-sized winning and losing outcomes feed into an average-result calculation. Original AI-generated educational illustration; diagrams are illustrative.
FavAcademy · Original commissioned AI illustration; public use authorized
Expectancy and Costs Workbook
Calculate net outcomes, win rate and payoff from a clearly defined fictional sample.
Included with membership
- Editable workbook (XLSX) · Editable workbook
- Printable worksheets and worked examples (HTML) · Printable companion
The full guide is available to eligible members. Open member resource.
Risk disclosure
For education only. Expectancy estimates depend on the sample and costs; past results do not establish future returns.